The Future of Law Enforcement is on the Ballot
On election nights, writer and political analyst Daniel Nichanian’s Twitter account is one to watch. From candidates to ballot measures, Nichanian, the founding editor of The Appeal: Political Report, brings context and color to the night’s progressive wins and losses. His own website, What’s on the Ballot, is a cheat sheet for local and state elections that are high stakes for the left.
I interviewed Nichanian about the November ballot measures he’s keeping an eye on, and trends he’s seeing amid the pandemic and the protests for police reform and abolition.
The struggle for democracy during COVID
Nichanian said that he’s noticed a significant drop in the number of ballot initiatives compared to previous election years. The pandemic and the resulting shutdowns, he said, may have made it difficult for people to collect the signatures needed to put an initiative on the ballot.
Ballot initiatives are a chance for the left to gain ground
Nichanian says that in recent years, ballot initiatives have become an opportunity for progressives to push priorities that would otherwise be blocked by state or federal Republican-led governments. Here are two such opportunities this election:
Florida Amendment 2, to incrementally increase the state's minimum wage to $15/hour by September 2026
Illinois Allow for Graduated Income Tax Amendment, to repeal the state’s flat rate tax and allow legislation for a graduated income tax
Expanding the discourse
Nichanian also said that ballot initiatives are an opportunity to cut through assumptions and expectations about voters and find out what the electorate really feels — which can in turn shape the behavior of politicians. “I'm thinking of the fact that so many conservative states have approved the Medicaid expansion in the past three. [It contradicts] the ideas of the [lack of] viability [for] government spending or public programs in those states,” Nichanian said.
He also pointed out that while electorates in conservative states are expected to go for “tough on crime” measures, Oklahoma voted for sentencing reform initiatives in 2018, and has another ballot initiative on the way this year:
Criminal History in Sentencing and Sentence Modification Initiative, for prohibiting using a person's past nonviolent felony convictions to enhance their sentence when sentencing them for a nonviolent felony, and modifying the sentences of people whose sentences were based on those felony convictions
They’re an opportunity for local officials to lead the nation
Ballot measures are a way to start a conversation around an issue, even if the measure fails. A radical effort in Oregon has kicked off a big debate:
Oregon Measure 110, Drug Decriminalization and Addiction Treatment Initiative, for decriminalizing simple drug possession with a maximum fine of $100, and creating a drug addiction treatment and recovery program with funding from marijuana tax revenue and state prison savings
Law enforcement under scrutiny
After this summer’s uprising, municipalities are holding votes on policies related to their local law enforcement. Referenda include setting up civilian oversight boards with the power to subpoena police departments for information, in cities such as:
Philadelphia’s Citizens Police Oversight Commission Amendment
San Diego’s Commission on Police Practices Amendment
Portland, Oregon’s Police Oversight Board Charter Amendment
Columbus, Ohio’s Civilian Police Review Board and Inspector General Charter Amendment
San Francisco’s Sheriff's Department Oversight Board Charter Amendment
However, Nichanian is also paying attention to the ways that police unions are supporting referenda that roll back progressive wins for criminal justice, such as:
California Proposition 20, Criminal Sentencing, Parole, and DNA Collection Initiative, supported by:
Association for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs
Los Angeles Police Protective League
Peace Officers Research Association of California
The backlash
Some states have referendums coming up — largely at the behest of conservatives — that would make it harder to establish ballot initiatives in the first place. These include:
Arkansas Issue 3, Initiative Process and Legislative Referral Requirements Amendment
Florida Amendment 4, Require Constitutional Amendments to be Passed Twice Initiative, which Nichanian says is a reaction to the expansion of voting rights for people with felonies in 2018
North Dakota Constitutional Measure 2, Require Initiated Constitutional Amendments to be Approved by the Legislature or Passed Twice Amendment
“The reason that matters is that in places like Florida, where Republicans have put in place very gerrymandered maps, and they might again over the next 10 years, the ballot initiative concept is kind of a rare avenue for progressives to try and flex power to change things,” Nichanian said.