What Does Sinn Féin’s Win Mean for Ireland?
By Elliot Ross
When voters in the Republic of Ireland went to the polls last week, Sinn Féin – a left-leaning party dedicated to achieving a single independent nation on the island of Ireland – won the popular vote, against all expectations. International commentators drew swift conclusions about Ireland’s constitutional future, but Sinn Féin’s success has more to do with Irish citizens’ expectations and hope that their government can help meet their fundamental, everyday needs.
Sinn Féin received 24.5% of first-preference votes, outperforming the two center-right parties that have dominated Irish elections for decades, Fianna Fáil (22.2%) and incumbent Fine Gael (20.9%). In Ireland’s proportional representation system, this will translate into 37 seats in the 160-member Dáil for Sinn Féin, and 38 and 35 for the other two major parties respectively. Sinn Féin’s share of the vote was so big that it entitled them to more parliamentary seats than they will be able to fill. They effectively ran out of candidates.
How did they do it? Sinn Féin’s success was built on a straightforward and pragmatic platform of social democratic policies. The solid but unspectacular title of the party’s manifesto set the tone: “Giving workers and families a break: A manifesto for change.” The party promised to build 100,000 houses within five years, reduce and freeze rents, cap mortgage interest rates, make childcare much cheaper, take action on climate change and increase investment in the health system. Ireland is split into two parts (Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom, though Brexit has seriously undermined the 1998 international settlement that brought decades of peace to the region after centuries of conflict), and Irish unification remains a key priority for the party, but it’s unclear how much this helped Sinn Féin at the polls.
The exit poll showed that crises in healthcare and housing were overwhelmingly the two key issues on voters’ minds. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have shown themselves to be highly competent in protecting the interests of financial institutions, major tech companies and property developers, but the country’s so-called economic recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis hasn’t been felt by less affluent citizens who saw their taxes fund the government bailouts handed out to struggling banks, only to then feel the pain directly as a lengthy dose of austerity takes its toll on public services.
As Daniel Finn argued in Jacobin, the Irish election needs to be understood in relation to the 2008 crash and how it was managed, even if its effects have taken more than a decade to filter through to the ballot box.
The election also provides a lesson to international observers that optics alone can never provide an adequate sense of the underlying politics of other countries. As Naomi O’Reilly writes in her sharp analysis for Politico:
Though Fine Gael spearheaded the landmark liberal reforms of legalizing gay marriage in 2015 and abortion in 2018, it is primarily defined by its pro-business, budget-balancing economic policies.
That is to say, Ireland is an example of a society where popular and progressive social reforms haven’t been enough to paper over the cracks of a fractured economy in which vital public services have suffered from severe funding cuts.
What happens now is unclear. The composition of Ireland’s parliament is delicately poised across parties. Sinn Féin may end up as a powerful faction within a governing coalition, or it could be frozen out by opponents that style themselves as the natural parties of government, the “grownups in the room.” There could also be a rerun and the chance for Sinn Féin to win even more seats.
But if Sinn Féin enters a coalition government, it will have to make trade-offs. Supporters will hope this doesn’t boil down to a choice between the party’s progressive social and economic policies and its commitment to achieving a united Ireland. The party’s surprise success is based on its offer of a realistic progressive economic alternative to government by and for Irish elites. There's an old Irish Republican slogan: “Our day will come.”
It may soon be Sinn Féin’s day to deliver.
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